Report: 2022’s losses negate last year’s funding progress for public pensions

Despite economic hardships brought about by the pandemic, American municipalities and states managed to reduce the funding shortfall of their public pension funds last year. But with looming financial uncertainty and the market turning downward, a new report finds that nearly all of those gains will be erased by the end of the year.

“There should be little surprise that America’s pension funds have taken a financial hit this year, swinging backward the year following some of the best investment returns in history,” reads the report from Equable Institute, “State of Pensions 2022.” Equable Institute, a research and advocacy organization that provides information about pensions, produces a report annually. “Massive returns for public and private equity in 2021 didn’t clearly align with any kind of obvious market fundamentals signaling persistent future growth. Inflation was already a concern before the year 2021 ended.”

Researchers analyzed trends in public pension funding, investments, contributions, cash flow and benefits for 228 of the largest statewide and municipal retirement systems in all 50 states, according to a statement about the findings.

Specifically, the aggregate funded ratio increased to more than 84 percent of communities, according to the analysis. A pension plan’s funded ratio is a measure of its financial position, as it expresses the difference between available assets and liabilities. This year, the average ratio is projected to decline to 77.9 percent. Unfunded liabilities will increase from $1 trillion at the end of last year to $1.4 trillion—representing the largest single-year drop in funded ratio since the Great Recession.

This year’s investment returns for state and local plans are down by an average of more than 10 percent.

“The net result is the largest single-year decline in assets since 2009,” the report says. The environment has, in turn, prompted organizations to shift assets “away from relatively safe fixed income investments into riskier categories in a search of stronger investment returns.”

Notably, much of the nation’s most severe pension fund challenges are focused in select areas. The five states with the most unfunded liabilities—California, Illinois, New Jersey, Texas and Pennsylvania—have a combined shortfall of $557 billion, far more than the rest of the country combined ($376 billion). Illinois alone has unfunded liabilities equaling $186 billion.

The spike isn’t surprising given how governments paid down public pension funds over the last year. The report notes that, given the unprecedented amount of federal money that’s been flowing to local governments since the pandemic began, many dipped into supplemental, rainy day funds or budget surpluses to make one-time contributions.

“While the American Rescue Plan (ARP) explicitly restricted its distributions from going into state pension funds, states were able to find multiple ways to work around the limitation, such as using general fund dollars that would have otherwise gone toward expenses that ARP money was used for,” the report notes.

Over the last few years, given the challenges brought on by the pandemic, governments have seen an increase in the number of people retiring early, continuing a trend that’s increased dramatically over the last few decades. Last year, the ratio of retirees to active employees increased to 17.4 retirees for every 13.3 active workers—in other words, more money is being withdrawn from public pension funds than put in.

“People are living longer and retiring faster (as the Baby Boomer generation phases out of the labor force). Public sector hiring rates slowed down after the Great Recession. The net result is active member counts have been relatively stable for the past few years, while the total number of retirees collecting benefits has grown,” the report says.

Another notable shift in the market is a push toward divestment from certain countries given the state of what’s going on in the world.

“Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022, state and local pension funds held assets, securities, real property, and other financial interests in Russian markets worth an estimated $5.7 billion. About $3.9 billion of these assets were in states that are aiming to divest,” the report says. “Most state retirement systems reported that their direct exposure to Russian markets constituted less than 1% of portfolio values as of spring 2022.”