2023: Ten predictions for a year of increased insecurity and opportunity

It’s that time of the year when many of dust off our digital crystal balls and develop one’s predictions for the year ahead. Having spent a good deal of time scanning the collective wisdom of others, I offer my annual take on what trends will be most prevalent in cities and counties across the nation. We begin the new year with continued worries about inflation, fear of a recession and political insecurity. Public managers and tech leaders are beginning to hunker down for a year of uncertainty and insecurity. Not all will be gloomy in 2023 as we will see tech once again shine in both applications, services and leadership.

1. Cyber insecurity remains the No. 1 concern for years to come. PTI’s 2022 Local Government Cybersecurity National Survey has had cybersecurity at the top of the list for more than 10 years straight. The reason for cyber insecurity is year-to-year dramatic increase in cyber crimes coupled with a lack of qualified and trained staff, and all too often—inadequate budget resources. Congress passed an historic four-year $1 billion Federal Cyber Grant Program in late 2021 as part of the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. The program calls for 80 percent to go to local governments and of that, 25 percent is to go to rural localities. But now that we have all studied the rules—no one expects much to happen in 2023. Why? Because the requirements are extremely cumbersome and demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the needs of local governments and how they operate. This means local governments will have to continue on their own and not count on federal support, at least for now.
2. Cyber insurance is becoming more difficult to apply for and afford. Insurance applications have become far lengthier and more difficult to fill out, and many local governments lack the expertise to complete them let alone afford the insurance. Premiums have more than doubled in the last year and coverage has actually decreased. This will cause some local governments to be outpriced, leaving them to fend for themselves and if they are fortunate put money aside for self-insurance.
3. Tech staffing insecurity continues to get worse in 2023 unless elected leaders and public managers get serious about changing employment rules that go back a hundred years. Every tech manager I have spoken with laments how difficult it is to attract new staff, let alone keep their most qualified. Those who leave government are realizing salary increases between 35 percent and 50 percent on average. To make matters worse, a growing number of local governments are now insisting that workers return to their physical offices at least three days a week, while some insist on the full five. Tech staffing insecurity leads to greater cyber insecurity too. The problem of burn-out among the existing staff will become unstainable unless staff innovation takes hold. This translates into more competitive benefits, workplace flexibility, and the ability to work from home and other out-of-state locations.
4. Managed Service Provider (MSP) insecurity is quickly becoming a serious dilemma for local government forced to turn to MSPs to augment stretched thinned staff. Supply chain attacks are on the rise and local governments are facing a crisis of trust; after all, they have turned to MSPs for expertise they cannot provide alone. Many local government managers are asking if not demanding MSPs provide better cyber protection and they want such assurances in writing. And there is no standard for which MSPs must abide by way of best practices. The bright spot here is the emergence of StateRamp and CompTIA’s Trustmark Plus programs that aim to certify cyber readiness that map security to CIS standards.
5. Zero trust, I.D. management insecurity continues to become essential in order to trust in our nation’s digital infrastructure systems. Many need to be reminded that the internet was first conceived as a near complete trusted environment among known participants. Two-factor authentication (2FA) coupled with I.D. management, and enhanced access rights governance will make systems far more secure. Local governments will continue to move toward greater zero-trust architecture.
6. Customer-facing technologies, which became essential during the pandemic, will continue to proliferate and improve. While the pandemic is somewhat winding down (the full extent remains to be seen) residents have come to appreciate online services as they do in the private sector. In the longer run, online automated systems save time and money for both citizens as well as government workers. As more systems move toward cloud-based services, the trend towards offering more online services will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Governments at levels will be pushing out new apps in the ever-growing mobile environment where government can be reached 24/7 from anywhere.
7. Augmented artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics are becoming more human-friendly and have become great tools in areas such as customer service. Chatbots have proven to be an effective means of supplementing staff in answering routine question either through text or voice. Offices are installing robotic receptionists and HR systems are providing interactive voice systems for their benefits policies. AI is being deployed in public safety, transportation, public works and data analysis to name just a few. Repetitive Process Automation (RPA) is finding new applications that enable public managers to achieve greater productivity and making it possible to deploy staff to perform jobs that are less monotonous and instead place them in more challenging positions.
8. Blockchain for trust might be viewed as more aspirational than a new year trend, yet blockchain technologies are taking hold albeit slowly, where blockchain continues to be promoted as a means of providing near alter-proof records and providing greater trust from the public. Some have argued that blockchain technologies might be a great way to track and record election data that may help satisfy a distrustful public.
9. Broadband access continues to grow. Last year Consumer Reports produced the “Survey on Broadband Affordability, Accessibility, and Quality of Service in the United States,” showing three-quarters of U.S. residents now view home internet as a basic necessity with a similar share of respondents voicing support for public networks built out by local governments. Three out of four Americans feel that municipal/community broadband should be allowed because it would ensure that broadband access is treated like other vital infrastructure such as highways, bridges, water systems and electrical grids, with equal access for all Americans to have equal access to it. Accelerated by the pandemic broadband insecurity has been met with the federal government stepping in and funding meaningful broadband protects throughout the nation. While the ambitious federal funding continues, much more needs to be done. The current build-out is certainly moving in the right direction, but required completion dates will need to be extended.
10. Data analytics will explode. Smart cities and counties depend on reliable data from which to operate systems, provide the narrative for smart planning and improved data-based decision making. The tech community will continue to rally behind data innovation and new forms of data curation. Data innovation focuses on how we can do things both differently and better. Smart public managers will insist on better data from all sources, and better data from which to make decisions goes a long way in addressing insecurity.

Dr. Alan R. Shark is the vice president public sector engagement and executive director of the CompTIA Public Technology Institute (PTI) in Washington, D.C., since 2004. He is a fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration and co-chair of the Standing Panel on Technology Leadership, and associate professor for the Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University. He is also the host of the popular bi-monthly podcast, Comptia Sharkbytes. Dr. Shark’s thought leadership activities include keynote speaking, blogging and as the author or co-author of more than 12 books, including the nationally recognized textbook Technology and Public Management(now in its second edition), and CIO Leadership for Cities and Counties.